Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcoyano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcoyano 0-0 Poblense, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcoyano 2-0 Poblense
Original prediction
Alcoyano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.1% | 42.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.8% | 32.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.0% | 25.9% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Projected Score
Alcoyano 0–0 Poblense
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Alcoyano
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Alcoyano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcoyanoLDWWD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PoblenseLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlcoyanoPoblense
29.4Attack33.3
80.4Defence33.3
53.9Form0.0
56.8Power23.7
1.00xG0.55