Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcoyano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.1% | 47.1% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 27.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 17.9% | 25.2% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Alcoyano
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Alcoyano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcoyanoLWWWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Elche IIWLLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlcoyanoElche II
33.3Attack38.9
66.7Defence50.0
60.0Form38.9
54.8Power43.5
1.27xG0.86