Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcorcon are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Teruel are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcorcon hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (51.5 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.4% in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60