Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leganes · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcorcon are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Leganes are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Leganes hold a 19.3-point power-rating edge (42.0 v 61.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.7% in the Segunda División, while Leganes holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leganes
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Leganes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80