Alcorconvs
Juventud Torremolinos
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/3/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcorcon 5-0 Juventud Torremolinos
Original prediction
Alcorcon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 71.6% | 46.6% | -24.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.7% | 27.8% | 9.1 pts |
| Away | 9.41 | 9.7% | 25.6% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20