Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcorcon 1-0 Ibiza, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcorcon 3-3 Ibiza
Original prediction
Alcorcon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.5% | 47.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.3% | 28.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.2% | 24.5% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Projected Score
Alcorcon 1–0 Ibiza
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcorconDLWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IbizaWDWLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AlcorconIbiza
58.3Attack45.8
75.0Defence58.3
54.2Form54.2
61.3Power55.2
1.53xG0.71