Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcorcon 1-1 Huesca
Original prediction
Alcorcon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.3% | 49.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.4% | 27.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 23.3% | 23.4% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcorconLWWWD
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HuescaDWDDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlcorconHuesca
61.9Attack44.4
76.2Defence50.0
57.1Form38.9
63.5Power46.2
1.83xG0.71