Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcorcon 0-0 Gimnastic, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcorcon 3-0 Gimnastic
Original prediction
Alcorcon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.8% | 42.1% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.1% | 30.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 23.0% | 27.9% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
Alcorcon 0–0 Gimnastic
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcorconDDDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GimnasticWDWLD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AlcorconGimnastic
0.0Attack35.1
100.0Defence57.0
33.3Form41.2
45.3Power46.6
1.12xG0.79