Alcionevs
Union Brescia
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Brescia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcione 0-0 Union Brescia, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcione 0-4 Union Brescia
Original prediction
Union Brescia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.80 | 23.8% | 28.7% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.9% | 30.5% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.3% | 40.8% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Projected Score
Alcione 0–0 Union Brescia
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Union Brescia
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Union Brescia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcioneDWDDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Union BresciaDDWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlcioneUnion Brescia
100.0Attack43.0
33.3Defence78.9
100.0Form60.5
80.3Power62.2
0.77xG1.01