Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Triestina are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80