Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Triestina are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40