Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcione 0-0 Treviso, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcione 1-1 Treviso
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 33.0% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.86 | 31.6% | 32.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.4% | 34.2% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.86 · Draw 1.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
Alcione 0–0 Treviso
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.9%
Model confidence
34.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcioneDWLLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TrevisoWLL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.67/1.00
BTTS 1/3O2.5 1/3
AlcioneTreviso
28.9Attack33.3
67.5Defence100.0
41.2Form100.0
47.9Power80.3
0.69xG0.83