Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcione · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcione 2-2 Trento
Original prediction
Alcione
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 27.8% | 37.8% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 29.1% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.4% | 33.1% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Alcione
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Alcione has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlcioneDLDWD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TrentoDWDDW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlcioneTrento
100.0Attack0.0
33.3Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power48.3
1.31xG0.90