Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Renate are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcione hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.5% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
28.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20