Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Padova are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 16.9-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40