Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Novara are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcione hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.1% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60