Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Novara are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcione hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.1% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80