Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Lumezzane are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20