Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alcione are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lecco are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Alcione hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 44.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.4% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60