Alcionevs
Desenzano Calvina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Desenzano Calvina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alcione 0-0 Desenzano Calvina, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcione 4-1 Desenzano Calvina
Original prediction
Desenzano Calvina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.5% | 31.6% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.1% | 31.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.5% | 37.3% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Projected Score
Alcione 0–0 Desenzano Calvina
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Desenzano Calvina
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Desenzano Calvina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80