Alcionevs
Athletic Carpi
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/24/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcione · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alcione 1-2 Athletic Carpi
Original prediction
Alcione
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.3% | 43.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.3% | 27.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.4% | 29.2% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Alcione
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Alcione has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00