Albirex Niigatavs
Vegalta Sendai
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/25/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vegalta Sendai · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albirex Niigata 2-1 Vegalta Sendai
Original prediction
Vegalta Sendai
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.96 | 23.2% | 25.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.9% | 27.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.9% | 47.4% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Vegalta Sendai
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Vegalta Sendai has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40