Albirex Niigatavs
Tokushima Vortis
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albirex Niigata 2-1 Tokushima Vortis
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.9% | 36.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.7% | 31.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.4% | 33.1% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Albirex NiigataLDWWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Tokushima VortisWLWLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Albirex NiigataTokushima Vortis
45.8Attack33.3
50.0Defence66.7
66.7Form54.2
56.7Power53.1
1.08xG0.95