Albirex Niigatavs
Sagan Tosu
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albirex Niigata · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albirex Niigata 2-1 Sagan Tosu
Original prediction
Albirex Niigata
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 28.3% | 37.5% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.8% | 27.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 42.8% | 35.2% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Albirex Niigata
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Albirex Niigata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80