Albirex Niigatavs
Montedio Yamagata
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 9/13/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montedio Yamagata · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albirex Niigata 1-0 Montedio Yamagata
Original prediction
Montedio Yamagata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.6% | 31.3% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 27.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.4% | 40.8% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Montedio Yamagata
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Montedio Yamagata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40