Albirex Niigatavs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 8/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albirex Niigata · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albirex Niigata 0-4 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Albirex Niigata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.2% | 42.0% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.3% | 27.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 21.5% | 30.2% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Albirex Niigata
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Albirex Niigata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80