Albinoleffevs
Novara
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albinoleffe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albinoleffe 2-2 Novara
Original prediction
Albinoleffe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.9% | 46.1% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 26.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.9% | 27.4% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Albinoleffe
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Albinoleffe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40