Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wales W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albania W 0-1 Wales W
Original prediction
Wales W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 15.67 | 5.8% | 19.9% | 14.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.11 | 12.8% | 22.3% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 81.4% | 57.9% | -23.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
Wales W
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Wales W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Albania WWDLLL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Wales WWDWWW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Albania WWales W
50.0Attack94.4
22.2Defence72.2
38.9Form77.8
38.5Power78.9
1.16xG3.11