Albaniavs
San Marino
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albania · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albania 2-1 San Marino
Original prediction
Albania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.03 | 93.1% | 66.5% | -26.7 pts |
| Draw | 18.57 | 5.2% | 18.7% | 13.6 pts |
| Away | 56.41 | 1.7% | 14.8% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Albania
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Albania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60