Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eldense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Albacete 2-0 Eldense
Original prediction
Eldense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.6% | 25.3% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.7% | 25.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.8% | 49.1% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Eldense
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Eldense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlbaceteLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
EldenseWWWLL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlbaceteEldense
20.0Attack43.3
26.7Defence56.7
3.3Form46.7
20.4Power50.6
0.64xG1.91