Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alay · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Alay are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Talant are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Alay hold a 13.1-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 45.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.4% in the Premier League, while Alay holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alay
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
16.4%
Alay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00