Alavesvs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/28/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alaves 1-0 Villarreal
Original prediction
Alaves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 30.2% | 42.1% | 11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 27.3% | 26.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 42.4% | 31.3% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Alaves
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Alaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlavesDWDWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VillarrealDDWWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlavesVillarreal
66.7Attack66.7
83.3Defence33.3
66.7Form33.3
71.2Power48.3
1.78xG1.10