Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alaves · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alaves 0-1 Valencia
Original prediction
Alaves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 51.3% | 62.8% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 28.6% | 21.3% | -7.2 pts |
| Away | 4.79 | 20.1% | 15.9% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Alaves
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Alaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlavesLWWDW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ValenciaLLLLD
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlavesValencia
73.3Attack6.7
66.7Defence33.3
66.7Form6.7
68.5Power19.2
2.57xG0.72