Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alaves · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alaves 5-2 Osasuna
Original prediction
Alaves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 41.6% | 41.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 30.9% | 29.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 27.6% | 29.1% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Alaves
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Alaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlavesWDWDW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OsasunaWWDLL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlavesOsasuna
55.6Attack33.3
88.9Defence88.9
77.8Form77.8
74.7Power70.7
1.34xG0.97