Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alaves · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alaves 2-0 Malaga, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alaves 1-1 Malaga
Original prediction
Alaves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 57.6% | 61.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 25.5% | 22.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.9% | 15.9% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Projected Score
Alaves 2–0 Malaga
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Alaves
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
61.6%
Alaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlavesLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MalagaLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
AlavesMalaga
48.1Attack22.2
63.0Defence33.3
40.7Form14.8
50.9Power27.0
2.15xG0.56