Alavesvs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/10/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Madrid · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Atletico Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.33 | 22.0% | 30.7% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.6% | 26.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 52.5% | 43.1% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Madrid
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Atletico Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20