Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alashkert · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alashkert 4-0 Van
Original prediction
Alashkert
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.6% | 69.5% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.12 | 14.8% | 17.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 11.88 | 7.6% | 12.8% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Alashkert
Probability
69.5%
Model confidence
69.5%
Alashkert has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlashkertDWLWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
VanLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AlashkertVan
66.7Attack13.3
86.7Defence6.7
66.7Form6.7
71.5Power15.0
2.81xG0.69