Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ula · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ula 2-0 Al-Raed
Original prediction
Al Ula
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.6% | 50.1% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.5% | 25.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 16.9% | 24.0% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Al Ula
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Al Ula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al UlaWWDDL
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al-RaedLWWDL
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al UlaAl-Raed
66.7Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
86.5Power53.0
1.67xG0.96