Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ula · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Ula 1-0 Al Orubah, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ula 3-1 Al Orubah
Original prediction
Al Ula
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.0% | 62.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.7% | 23.2% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 8.06 | 11.3% | 14.0% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Projected Score
Al Ula 1–0 Al Orubah
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Al Ula
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Al Ula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al UlaDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al OrubahDDWDD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Al UlaAl Orubah
76.2Attack23.8
85.7Defence76.2
90.5Form38.1
84.2Power49.2
1.56xG0.51