Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Talaba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Talaba 1-0 Newroz
Original prediction
Al Talaba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.4% | 38.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.2% | 29.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 29.4% | 32.2% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Talaba
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Al Talaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al TalabaD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/3.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
NewrozL
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/1.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 0/1
Al TalabaNewroz
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24