Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Talaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Talaba 1-0 Al Karkh, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Talaba 3-2 Al Karkh
Original prediction
Al Talaba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.3% | 47.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 29.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 21.6% | 23.3% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Projected Score
Al Talaba 1–0 Al Karkh
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Al Talaba
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Al Talaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al TalabaDDWDL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al KarkhLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al TalabaAl Karkh
33.3Attack13.3
66.7Defence53.3
40.0Form6.7
49.7Power28.1
1.20xG0.67