Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shamal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shamal 2-3 Qatar SC
Original prediction
Al Shamal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.4% | 59.2% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.1% | 20.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.6% | 20.4% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Shamal
Probability
59.2%
Model confidence
59.2%
Al Shamal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ShamalDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Qatar SCDDLWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al ShamalQatar SC
55.6Attack33.3
44.4Defence22.2
50.0Form16.7
51.0Power27.4
2.63xG1.17