Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shamal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shamal 1-1 Al Wakrah
Original prediction
Al Shamal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.4% | 54.5% | 14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.5% | 21.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.1% | 23.6% | -10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Al Shamal
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Al Shamal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ShamalWDWDL
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Al WakrahLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al ShamalAl Wakrah
100.0Attack33.3
44.4Defence11.1
77.8Form11.1
75.3Power22.2
3.10xG1.25