Al Shahaniyavs
Lusail City
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 10/10/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusail City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shahaniya 1-0 Lusail City
Original prediction
Lusail City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.0% | 35.5% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.8% | 26.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.2% | 37.9% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Lusail City
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Lusail City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80