Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Shabab · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Shabab 2-1 Smail
Original prediction
Al-Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.6% | 58.8% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 19.6% | 23.3% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 9.20 | 9.8% | 18.0% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–012%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Al-Shabab
Probability
58.8%
Model confidence
58.8%
Al-Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-ShababWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SmailDDDDL
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al-ShababSmail
100.0Attack26.7
58.3Defence53.3
75.0Form40.0
75.3Power42.5
1.84xG0.78