Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Shabab · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Shabab 2-1 Saham
Original prediction
Al-Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 04:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.1% | 45.3% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 28.5% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 5.77 | 15.6% | 26.2% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Al-Shabab
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Al-Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-ShababWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SahamDDWWL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Al-ShababSaham
22.2Attack25.0
88.9Defence58.3
55.6Form16.7
59.1Power36.5
1.40xG0.90