Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shabab · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shabab 3-0 Al Taawon
Original prediction
Al Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.1% | 43.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.3% | 27.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.6% | 29.8% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Shabab
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Al Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ShababDLLDD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al TaawonDLLDL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al ShababAl Taawon
28.6Attack14.3
47.6Defence42.9
19.0Form14.3
34.9Power26.0
1.26xG0.94