Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shabab · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shabab 3-2 Al Jahra
Original prediction
Al Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.6% | 38.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 28.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.7% | 32.3% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Shabab
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Al Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ShababWLDWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al JahraDWWLD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al ShababAl Jahra
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24