Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shabab · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Fayha
Original prediction
Al Shabab
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 59.1% | 43.6% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.1% | 24.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.8% | 31.8% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Shabab
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Al Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al ShababLLDDD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al-FayhaLDWDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al ShababAl-Fayha
33.3Attack38.9
38.9Defence38.9
16.7Form27.8
32.9Power38.1
1.42xG1.36