Al Saddvs
Al-Gharafa
COMPLETEDQatar · Qatar Cup · 9/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Sadd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Sadd 2-1 Al-Gharafa
Original prediction
Al Sadd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.1% | 43.7% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.7% | 26.9% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 4.95 | 18.3% | 29.4% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Sadd
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Al Sadd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al SaddWWWLW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-GharafaLWDLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al SaddAl-Gharafa
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24